01153425

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2148-12

http://scholar.google.com...hahi&publication_year=2010

Traffic safety has been a major concern in many developing countries during the past two decades. Rapid growth in car ownership and use has extensively increased exposure to traffic crashes. Current practice regarding crashes is based mainly on short-term traffic engineering measures. However, one important issue in dealing with traffic crashes is long-range safety plans that account for future changes in transportation demand. This planning requires specialized tools and methods to forecast crash frequencies. One such tool is the aggregate (macro-level) crash prediction model. This research introduces crash generation models (CGMs), which are developed on the basis of the trip generation phase of the four-step demand modeling technique. These models are capable of forecasting the number of crashes in urban traffic analysis zones on the basis of the forecast number of trips generated by purpose. CGMs may be used for immediate checking of the effect of future trip generations on crash frequencies in comprehensive transportation planning studies (i.e., the ability to forecast crashes at each time-step when trips are being forecast). These models will help safety planners develop travel-demand management scenarios and simultaneously assess their perceived effects on the overall safety of urban areas. The models prove an effective step toward incorporating safety into long-range transportation planning.

01164464

10-1230

English

pp 101-106

2010

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309142793

Print

Figures (5) ; References (21) ; Tables (2)

Crash rates; Developing countries; Forecasting; Long range planning; Traffic analysis zones; Traffic crashes; Traffic safety; Travel demand management; Trip generation; Urban areas

Crash generation models; Crash prediction models

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning; I81: Accident Statistics

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 25 2010 10:32AM

• County-Level Crash Risk Analysis in Florida: Bayesian Spatial Modeling
• Evaluating Trauma Management Performance in Europe: A Multiple-Layer Data Envelopment Analysis Model
• Exploratory Study of Mechanisms by Which Exposure Influences Accident Occurrence
• Fatality Risk of Intersection Crashes on Rural Undivided Highways in Alberta, Canada
• Full Bayes Approach to Before-and-After Safety Evaluation with Matched Comparisons: Case Study of Stop-Sign In-Fill Program
• Impact of Rumble Strips on Collision Reduction on Highways in British Columbia, Canada: Comprehensive Before-and-After Safety Study
• Implementation Road Map for In-Vehicle Safety Systems in China
• Logistic Models in Crash Severity Classification Based on Road Characteristics
• Model-Based Application of Abbreviated Injury Scale to Police-Reported Crash Injuries
• Ordinal Discrete Choice Analyses of Wisconsin Cross-Median Crash Severities
• Property Damage Crash Equivalency Factors to Solve Crash Frequency–Severity Dilemma: Case Study on South Korean Rural Roads
• Rethinking Electronic Crash Data Collection Transmission Model: Conceptual Framework for Centralized Web-Based Crash Data Collection System
• Revisiting Variability of Dispersion Parameter of Safety Performance for Two-Lane Rural Roads