01128840

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2133-13

http://scholar.google.com...Lemp&publication_year=2009

Forecasting urban futures is of great importance to ensure the adequate provision of public and private services and to implement policies that guide demand while mitigating negative impacts. This study produces year 2030 predictions of land use and travel conditions across the Austin–Round Rock statistical metropolitan area of Texas by integrating a gravity-based land use model (modeled on Putman’s Integrated Transportation–Land Use Package specification) with a standard travel demand model. The land use model cycles through job, household, and land consumption estimates across traffic analysis zones before feeding forward into a contemporaneous model of travel patterns. To understand the implications of different policies better, three scenarios were generated: a business-as-usual scenario, a congestion pricing plus carbon tax scenario, and an urban growth boundary (UGB) scenario. Results reveal how these transportation and land use policies may shape our land and travel futures, and they illuminate challenges and pitfalls of the gravity-based approach to land use (including the accompanying land consumption model). Of particular interest is that the imposition of road pricing (roughly 5¢/mi) had almost no discernable effect on land use predictions, yet resulted in the same predicted reduction in regional vehicle miles traveled as the UGB policy (roughly 15%).

01147880

09-2105

English

pp 123-132

2009

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309142748

Print

Figures (2) ; References (32) ; Tables (5)

Congestion pricing; Gravity models; Land use planning; Policy analysis; Road pricing; Traffic analysis zones; Traffic congestion; Traffic forecasting; Travel demand; Travel patterns; Urban growth; Vehicle miles of travel

Integrated transportation systems

Austin (Texas); Round Rock (Texas)

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 30 2009 6:26PM

• Adapting Travel Models and Urban Models to Forecast Greenhouse Gases in California
• Anticipating Welfare Impacts via Travel Demand Forecasting Models: Comparison of Aggregate and Activity-Based Approaches for the Austin, Texas, Region
• Calibrating a Synthetic Built Form Generator
• Development of Methodology for Toll Plaza Delay Estimation for Use in Travel Demand Model Postprocessor
• Dynamic Origin–Destination Estimation Using Dynamic Traffic Simulation Model in an Urban Arterial Corridor
• Intrametropolitan Location of Business Establishments: Microanalytical Model for Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
• Lessons Learned in Developing and Applying Land Use Model Systems: Parcel-Based Example
• Modeling Location Decisions of Office Firms: Introducing Anchor Points and Constructing Choice Sets in the Model System
• Reference-Dependent Residential Location Choice Model Within a Relocation Context
• Sensitivity Testing with the Oregon Statewide Integrated Model
• Spatial Equity Analysis on Expressway Network Development in Japan: Empirical Approach Using the Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model RAEM-Light
• Testing an Integrated Land Use and Transportation Modeling Framework for a Small Metropolitan Area
• Understanding Residential Mobility: Joint Model of the Reason for Residential Relocation and Stay Duration