01099233

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2088-11

http://scholar.google.com...noop&publication_year=2008

Modeling breakdown probabilities or phase-transition probabilities is an important issue when assessing and predicting the reliability of traffic flow operations. Looking at empirical spatiotemporal patterns, these probabilities clearly are a function not only of the local prevailing traffic conditions (density, speed) but also of time and space. For instance, the probability that a start–stop wave occurs generally increases when moving upstream away from the bottleneck location. A simple partial differential equation is presented that can be used to model the dynamics of breakdown probabilities, in conjunction with the well-known kinematic wave model. The main assumption is that the breakdown probability dynamics satisfy the way information propagates in a traffic flow, that is, they move along with the characteristics. The main result is that the main characteristics of the breakdown probabilities can be reproduced. This is illustrated through two examples: free flow to synchronized flow (F-S transition) and synchronized to jam (S-J transition). It is shown that the probability of an F-S transition increases away from the on ramp in the direction of the flow; the probability of an S-J transition increases as one moves upstream in the synchronized flow area.

01121596

English

pp 102-108

2008

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309126038

Print

Figures (7) ; References (8)

Bottlenecks; Macroscopic traffic flow; On ramps; Probability; Stochastic processes; Traffic characteristics; Traffic congestion; Traffic density; Traffic flow; Traffic flow theory; Traffic speed

Kinematic wave theory; Traffic flow breakdown

Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; I71: Traffic Theory

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 29 2008 3:35PM

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