01020890

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/1950-04

http://scholar.google.com...lman&publication_year=2006

In practice, crash and injury counts are modeled by using a single equation or a series of independently specified equations, which may neglect shared information in unobserved error terms, reduce efficiency in parameter estimates, and lead to biases in sample databases. This paper offers a multivariate Poisson specification that simultaneously models injuries by severity. Parameter estimation is performed within the Bayesian paradigm with a Gibbs sampler for crashes on Washington State highways. Parameter estimates and goodness-of-fit measures are compared with a series of independent Poisson equations, and a cost–benefit analysis of a 10-mph speed limit change is provided as an example application.

01030706

English

24p

2006

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

0309099595

Print

Figures (1) ; References (64) ; Tables (9)

Benefit cost analysis; Crash injuries; Databases; Goodness of fit; Injury severity; Multivariate analysis; Poisson ratio; Regression analysis; Speed limits

Bayesian approach

Washington (State)

Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I81: Accident Statistics

TRIS, TRB

Mar 3 2006 10:49AM

• Application of "Highway Safety Manual" Draft Chapter: Louisiana Experience
• Calibration of Safety Prediction Models for Planning Transportation Networks
• Comparison of Two Negative Binomial Regression Techniques in Developing Accident Prediction Models
• Describing the Evolution in the Number of Highway Deaths by Decomposition in Exposure, Accident Risk, and Fatality Risk
• Effects of Sample Size on Goodness-of-Fit Statistic and Confidence Intervals of Crash Prediction Models Subjected to Low Sample Mean Values
• Refinement of Accident Prediction Models for Spanish National Network
• Use of Propensity Score Matching Method and Hybrid Bayesian Method to Estimate Crash Modification Factors of Signal Installation
• Using Macrolevel Collision Prediction Models in Road Safety Planning Applications
• Using the Rural Two-Lane Highway Draft Prototype Chapter