Abstract:
The collection and the analysis of data on working from home (teleworking) and on the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) to substitute for business travel are described, and conclusions are drawn. Data were collected from senior management by using a web-based questionnaire incorporating several innovative features; in addition to data on current and expected levels of home-working and business travel in a range of ICT scenarios, data were collected on the respondent’s perception of the impact of different factors on future levels of these activities. Also, to test the robustness of respondent opinions, the impact of alternative versions of a briefing text—one positive and one negative about the role of ICT—on respondent expectations was evaluated. Analysis revealed that a number of factors that are often ignored or taken as constant would be influential in the future levels of home-working and business travel. Generally, issues of cost appeared to be much less influential than the speed and security of communications. Assumptions about future travel conditions were seen to have considerable influence on expected levels of home-working and business travel. Respondent opinions about home-working were found to be more robust than those relating to business travel. Models were specified and calibrated on respondent expectations. Predictions by these models appear reasonable and in line with recently published trends. The work was conducted within the European Union–funded POET (Prediction of E-Economy Impacts on Transport) project and provided models that were used to inform predictions of travel demand in European city regions in a hypothesized ICT-rich future.
