01024790

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/1968-13

http://scholar.google.com...+Ran&publication_year=2006

Decision reliability is becoming an important issue for both researchers and transportation service providers; different models and methods have been proposed to improve decision reliability. A method is proposed for improving decision reliability by analyzing the moments and central moments of historical travel time data. Because of the existence of traffic congestion—especially nonrecurrent traffic congestion—travel time is generally a random variable with an asymmetric historical distribution. Statistical methods are applied to obtain the higher-order moments and central moments of historical travel time, which provide quantitative information about the variability, asymmetry, and leptokurtosis of travel time. This information is useful in making reliable decisions and avoiding scenarios that can potentially lead to extremely high costs. The method is based on advanced traveler information systems, which provide useful historical travel time information for traffic networks. The new method and other methods are compared with two testing experiments.

01037954

English

pp 109-116

2006

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

0309099773

Print

Figures (6) ; References (6) ; Tables (3)

Advanced traveler information systems; History; Statistical analysis; Traffic congestion; Travel time

Decision reliability

Data and Information Technology; Highways; History; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Mar 3 2006 10:40AM

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