00935404

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/1805-08

http://scholar.google.com...+Chu&publication_year=2002

A mathematical model developed to predict automobile ownership for individual households residing in New York City is presented. This effort is distinguished from previous disaggregate household-level automobile ownership models primarily by the use of ordered probit models rather than the commonly used multinomial logit (MNL) and sequential logit (SL) models. When the dependent variable involves ordinal categorical data (in this case, automobile ownership level--zero automobiles, one automobile, two automobiles, and three or more automobiles), the ordered probit model will discern unequal differences between ordinal categories in the dependent variable, the MNL model will treat categories as independent choice alternatives, and the SL model (a product of binary logits) will assume independence of the error terms across all binary choices. The modeling approach was based on a behavioral analysis that explained the factors influencing household automobile ownership decisions in a highly urbanized environment. In addition to socioeconomic variables, transportation and land use-related measures were developed and used to test the sensitivity of household automobile ownership choice to transit accessibility, traffic congestion, parking cost and availability, and levels of access to opportunity sites through nonmotorized transportation. The estimation results uncover important interactions between socioeconomic- and location-related elements and automobile ownership. Findings provide exploratory methodological and empirical evidence that could lead to an approach to predicting the change in household automobile ownership as a result of changes in future socioeconomic conditions and transportation and land use scenarios.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1805, Travel Demand and Land Use 2002.

English

p. 60-67

2002

Transportation Research Record

0309077311

References (20) ; Tables (2)

Accessibility; Automobile ownership; Costs; Decision making; Land use; Mathematical models; Mathematical prediction; Parking; Probits; Public transit; Socioeconomic factors; Traffic congestion; Urban areas

New York (New York)

Data and Information Technology; Economics; Finance; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Society; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 16 2003 12:00AM

• ACCESSIBILITY INDICES: CONNECTION TO RESIDENTIAL LAND PRICES AND LOCATION CHOICES
• ADAPTATION OF LOGIT KERNEL TO ROUTE CHOICE SITUATION
• ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR INTEGRATED TRANSPORTATION AND LAND USE MODELS CONTRASTED WITH TREND-DELPHI MODELS: PORTLAND, OREGON, METRO RESULTS
• DESIGN OF AN INTEGRATED LAND USE AND ACTIVITY-BASED TRAVEL MODEL SYSTEM FOR THE PUGET SOUND REGION
• EFFECTS OF IN-FILL RETAIL CENTER DEVELOPMENT ON REGIONAL TRAVEL PATTERNS
• FLEXIBLE MODELING STRATEGIES FOR ASSESSING THE INFLUENCE OF TRANSPORTATION ON ACCESSIBILITY
• HOUSEHOLD TRAVEL BEHAVIOR IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: NESTED LOGIT MODEL OF VEHICLE OWNERSHIP, MODE CHOICE, AND TRIP CHAINING
• INCORPORATING NONMOTORIZED MODE AND NEIGHBORHOOD ACCESSIBILITY IN AN INTEGRATED LAND USE AND TRANSPORTATION MODEL SYSTEM
• MICROSIMULATION IN TRAVEL DEMAND MODELING: LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE NEW YORK BEST PRACTICE MODEL
• MIXED LOGIT (OR LOGIT KERNEL) MODEL: DISPELLING MISCONCEPTIONS OF IDENTIFICATION
• PREDICTION OF RECREATIONAL TRAVEL USING GENETICALLY DESIGNED REGRESSION AND TIME-DELAY NEURAL NETWORK MODELS
• SPATIAL TRANSFERABILITY OF THE ALBATROSS MODEL SYSTEM: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM TWO CASE STUDIES
• TRADITIONAL NEIGHBORHOODS AND AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP
• TRANSIT'S VALUE-ADDED EFFECTS: LIGHT AND COMMUTER RAIL SERVICES AND COMMERCIAL LAND VALUES
• TRANSPORTATION INVESTMENTS AND URBAN FORM
• UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION IN AN INTEGRATED LAND USE-TRANSPORTATION MODELING FRAMEWORK: OUTPUT VARIATION VIA URBANSIM