00965461

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/1836-18

http://scholar.google.com...+Ran&publication_year=2003

The traffic-forecasting model, when considered as a system with inputs of historical and current data and outputs of future data, behaves in a nonlinear fashion and varies with time of day. Traffic data are found to change abruptly during the transition times of entering and leaving peak periods. Accurate and real-time models are needed to approximate the nonlinear time-variant functions between system inputs and outputs from a continuous stream of training data. A proposed local linear regression model was applied to short-term traffic prediction. The performance of the model was compared with previous results of nonparametric approaches that are based on local constant regression, such as the k-nearest neighbor and kernel methods, by using 32-day traffic-speed data collected on US-290, in Houston, Texas, at 5-min intervals. It was found that the local linear methods consistently showed better performance than the k-nearest neighbor and kernel smoothing methods.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1836, Initiatives in Information Technology and Geospatial Science for Transportation.

English

p. 143-150

2003

Transportation Research Record

0309085721

Figures (7) ; References (23) ; Tables (1)

Performance; Traffic forecasting

Local linear regression model

Houston (Texas)

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Nov 7 2003 12:00AM

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• APPLICATION OF LIGHT DETECTION AND RANGING TECHNOLOGY TO HIGHWAY SAFETY
• BILEVEL FORMULATION FOR OPTIMAL TRAFFIC-INFORMATION DISSEMINATION
• BUILDING AND MAINTAINING A STATEWIDE TRANSPORTATION FRAMEWORK
• COMMON DATA FORMAT ARCHIVING OF LARGE-SCALE INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS DATA FOR EFFICIENT STORAGE, RETRIEVAL, AND PORTABILITY
• DESIGN OF ARCHIVAL TRAFFIC DATABASES: QUANTITATIVE INVESTIGATION INTO APPLICATION OF ADVANCED DATA MODELING CONCEPTS
• DEVELOPED INCIDENT DETECTION ALGORITHM COMPARED WITH NEURAL NETWORK ALGORITHMS
• EXPLORING IMPUTATION TECHNIQUES FOR MISSING DATA IN TRANSPORTATION MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS
• FUZZY-NEURAL NETWORK TRAFFIC PREDICTION FRAMEWORK WITH WAVELET DECOMPOSITION
• INTEGRATION OF LIGHT DETECTION AND RANGING TECHNOLOGY WITH PHOTOGRAMMETRY IN HIGHWAY LOCATION AND DESIGN
• INTEGRATION OF SPATIAL POINT FEATURES WITH LINEAR REFERENCING METHODS
• LEARNING A CAUSAL MODEL FROM HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA BY USING A BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK
• MODULAR ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS FOR SOLVING THE INVERSE TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROBLEM
• OPTIMIZATION OF DYNAMIC NEURAL NETWORK PERFORMANCE FOR SHORT-TERM TRAFFIC PREDICTION
• REAL-TIME COORDINATED SIGNAL CONTROL THROUGH USE OF AGENTS WITH ONLINE REINFORCEMENT LEARNING
• ROUGH SETS AND PROBABILITY MASSES FOR DEMPSTER-SHAFER DATA FUSION AT A TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT CENTER
• SPATIOTEMPORAL OBJECT DATABASE APPROACH TO DYNAMIC SEGMENTATION
• TOWARD MORE EFFECTIVE TRANSPORTATION APPLICATIONS OF COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE PARADIGMS