00965450

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/1836-07

http://scholar.google.com...ndru&publication_year=2003

An approach is presented for optimizing short-term traffic-prediction performance by using multiple topologies of dynamic neural networks and various network-related and traffic-related settings. The conducted study emphasized the potential benefit of optimizing the prediction performance by deploying multimodel approaches under parameters and traffic-condition settings. Emphasis was placed on the application of temporal-processing topologies in short-term speed predictions in the range of 5-min to 20-min horizons. Three network topologies were used: Jordan-Elman networks, partially recurrent networks, and time-lagged feedforward networks. The input patterns were constructed from data collected at the target location and at upstream and downstream locations. However, various combinations were also considered. To encourage the networks to associate with historical information on recurrent conditions, a time factor was attached to the input patterns to introduce time-recognition capabilities, in addition to information encoded in the recent past data. The optimal prediction settings (type of topology and input settings) were determined so that performance was maximized under different traffic conditions at the target and adjacent locations. The optimized performance of the dynamic neural networks was compared to that of a statistical nonlinear time series approach, which was outperformed in most cases. The study showed that no single topology consistently outperformed the others for all prediction horizons considered. However, the results showed that the significance of introducing the time factor was more pronounced under longer prediction horizons. A comparative evaluation of performance of optimal and nonoptimal settings showed substantial improvement in most cases. The applied procedure can also be used to identify the prediction reliability of information-dissemination systems.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1836, Initiatives in Information Technology and Geospatial Science for Transportation.

English

p. 45-56

2003

Transportation Research Record

0309085721

Figures (5) ; References (36) ; Tables (1)

Neural networks; Optimization; Performance; Topology; Traffic forecasting

Short term forecasts

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Nov 7 2003 12:00AM

• ADJUSTING TRIP RATES IN THE CROSS-CLASSIFICATION TABLE BY USING THE FUZZY OPTIMIZATION METHOD
• APPLICATION OF LIGHT DETECTION AND RANGING TECHNOLOGY TO HIGHWAY SAFETY
• BILEVEL FORMULATION FOR OPTIMAL TRAFFIC-INFORMATION DISSEMINATION
• BUILDING AND MAINTAINING A STATEWIDE TRANSPORTATION FRAMEWORK
• COMMON DATA FORMAT ARCHIVING OF LARGE-SCALE INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS DATA FOR EFFICIENT STORAGE, RETRIEVAL, AND PORTABILITY
• DESIGN OF ARCHIVAL TRAFFIC DATABASES: QUANTITATIVE INVESTIGATION INTO APPLICATION OF ADVANCED DATA MODELING CONCEPTS
• DEVELOPED INCIDENT DETECTION ALGORITHM COMPARED WITH NEURAL NETWORK ALGORITHMS
• EXPLORING IMPUTATION TECHNIQUES FOR MISSING DATA IN TRANSPORTATION MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS
• FUZZY-NEURAL NETWORK TRAFFIC PREDICTION FRAMEWORK WITH WAVELET DECOMPOSITION
• INTEGRATION OF LIGHT DETECTION AND RANGING TECHNOLOGY WITH PHOTOGRAMMETRY IN HIGHWAY LOCATION AND DESIGN
• INTEGRATION OF SPATIAL POINT FEATURES WITH LINEAR REFERENCING METHODS
• LEARNING A CAUSAL MODEL FROM HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA BY USING A BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK
• MODULAR ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS FOR SOLVING THE INVERSE TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROBLEM
• REAL-TIME COORDINATED SIGNAL CONTROL THROUGH USE OF AGENTS WITH ONLINE REINFORCEMENT LEARNING
• ROUGH SETS AND PROBABILITY MASSES FOR DEMPSTER-SHAFER DATA FUSION AT A TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT CENTER
• SPATIOTEMPORAL OBJECT DATABASE APPROACH TO DYNAMIC SEGMENTATION
• TOWARD MORE EFFECTIVE TRANSPORTATION APPLICATIONS OF COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE PARADIGMS
• USE OF LOCAL LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL FOR SHORT-TERM TRAFFIC FORECASTING