00802517

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/1717-15

http://scholar.google.com...ckel&publication_year=2000

An approach is presented for estimating future travel times on a freeway using flow and occupancy data from single-loop detectors and historical travel-time information. Linear regression, with the stepwise-variable-selection method and more advanced tree-based methods, is used. The analysis considers forecasts ranging from a few minutes into the future up to an hour ahead. Leave-a-day-out cross-validation was used to evaluate the prediction errors without underestimation. The current traffic state proved to be a good predictor for the near future, up to 20 min, whereas historical data are more informative for longer-range predictions. Tree-based methods and linear regression both performed satisfactorily, showing slightly different qualitative behaviors for each condition examined in this analysis. Unlike preceding works that rely on simulation, real traffic data were used. Although the current implementation uses measured travel times from probe vehicles, the ultimate goal is an autonomous system that relies strictly on detector data. In the course of presenting the prediction system, the manner in which travel times change from day to day was examined, and several metrics to quantify these changes were developed. The metrics can be used as input for travel-time prediction, but they also should be beneficial for other applications, such as calibrating traffic models and planning models.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1717, Highway and Traffic Safety: Crash Data, Analysis Tools, and Statistical Methods.

English

p. 120-129

2000

Transportation Research Record

0309066999

Figures (7) ; References (13) ; Tables (1)

Errors; Forecasting; Freeways; Linear regression analysis; Loop detectors; Mathematical prediction; Travel time; Trees (Mathematics); Trend (Statistics)

Daily variations

Data and Information Technology; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Nov 15 2000 12:00AM

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