00796909

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org.../conf/1999/cp21/21-011.pdf

Fuel tax receipts and motor vehicle registration fees account for more than three-quarters of the total revenues available to spend on highway investments. Many states and local governments align future expenditure levels with anticipated revenues, meaning the receipts and expenditures tend to track quite closely with one another. Although revenues tend to be quite stable from one year to the next at the national level, significant annual fluctuations are common at the state level. Fuel tax and registration fee receipts can vary by 25% or more from one year to the next, which can make it difficult for decision makers to set spending targets. The quality of both available data and modeling techniques must be improved so that economists can better understand the dynamics underlying such volatile revenue streams. For example, to predict fuel tax revenues, analysts need better ways to measure relevant input variables, such as vehicle miles traveled and fuel efficiency, as well as the attributes of those variables. In particular, it would be helpful to have a better understanding of commercial vehicle miles traveled, as most research to date has focused on passenger vehicles. Better analytic tools are needed as well, and particularly ones that can anticipate behavioral responses to changes in fuel prices and other relevant factors. Also, as states look to new types of revenue streams, such as tolls and impact fees, policy makers will begin to demand better forecasts of future receipts deriving from these alternative mechanisms for financing transportation infrastructure. Following this presentation are the findings of a working group that developed a list of 7 research proposals on the topic of revenue forecasting.

Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

00796898

English

p. 44-46

2000

Transportation Research Board Conference Proceedings

Information Requirements for Transportation Economic Analysis

0309071240

Digital/other

Data quality; Decision making; Economic analysis; Forecasting; Fuel taxes; Impact fees; Investments; Registration fees; Revenues; Tolls; Transportation planning; User charges

Economics; Finance; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB

Aug 4 2000 12:00AM

• ECONOMIC EVALUATION FOR DECISION MAKING ON TRANSPORTATION PROJECTS, PROGRAMS, AND POLICIES
• ESTIMATING REVENUES FROM USER CHARGES, TAXES, AND FEES: IDENTIFYING INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS
• HOW LEVELS OF INVESTMENT IN TRANSPORTATION AFFECT ECONOMIC HEALTH
• HOW LEVELS OF TRANSPORTATION INVESTMENT AFFECT ECONOMIC HEALTH
• IMPORTANCE OF TRANSPORTATION INFORMATION: CANADA'S EXPERIENCE
• INFORMATION FOR TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: STATE OF THE ART AND RELEVANCE FOR DECISION MAKING
• RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN ECONOMIC INFORMATION: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AT THE STATE, METROPOLITAN, AND PROJECT LEVELS
• RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN ECONOMIC INFORMATION: RATE OF RETURN AND PRODUCTIVITY STUDIES, COMMODITY AND PASSENGER FLOW DATA, AND AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY
• RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN ECONOMIC INFORMATION: TRANSPORTATION SATELLITE ACCOUNTS AND CAPITAL STOCKS ACCOUNTS
• RELEVANCE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS FOR DECISION MAKING: IMPORTANCE OF COMMUNICATING RESEARCH RESULTS
• SELECTING PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION PROJECTS: INFORMATIONAL REQUIREMENTS
• STRATEGIES FOR MEASURING PRODUCTIVE HIGHWAY CAPITAL STOCKS
• TRANSPORTATION CONDITIONS: A TOP CONCERN OF THE PUBLIC
• WHY INFORMATION MATTERS: GETTING THE MESSAGE ACROSS ABOUT TRANSPORTATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
• WHY INFORMATION MATTERS: WEST VIRGINIA: A RURAL POINT OF VIEW