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Title: IMPACT OF 65-MPH SPEED LIMIT ON IOWA'S RURAL INTERSTATE HIGHWAYS: INTEGRATED BAYESIAN FORECASTING AND DYNAMIC MODELING APPROACH
Accession Number: 00757503
Record Type: Component
Record URL: Availability: Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Find a library where document is available Abstract: In 1987, a provision of the Surface Transportation and Uniform Relocation Assistance Act allowed states to raise speed limits on rural Interstates to 65 mph (104.6 km/h). By 1995, nearly all states had done so. Several studies have investigated the safety impacts of these increases. Methodologies varied from analysis of variance to simple before and after comparison and have included time series procedures, with and without intervention variables. In general, these studies have produced contradictory findings. An integrated Bayesian forecasting and dynamic modeling approach used to determine the impact of the increased speed limit on rural Interstates of Iowa is reported. The approach is used to verify that raising the speed limit to 65 mph (104.6 km/h) led to an increase in fatal accidents on rural Interstates of Iowa. Comparison of fatal accident data on rural Interstates of Iowa and New Jersey yields similar results. Although this conclusion was anticipated, the study further demonstrates that a Bayesian/dynamic approach is more robust than the standard time series model.
Supplemental Notes: This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1640, Traffic Safety: Management, Enforcement, Older Drivers, Heavy Vehicles, and Motorcycles.
Language: English
Corporate Authors: Transportation Research Board 500 Fifth Street, NW Authors: Raju, SSouleyrette, RMaze, T HPagination: p. 47-56
Publication Date: 1998
Serial: ISBN: 0309065127
Features: Figures
(8)
; References
(14)
; Tables
(1)
TRT Terms: Uncontrolled Terms: Geographic Terms: Old TRIS Terms: Subject Areas: Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I81: Accident Statistics
Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
Created Date: Dec 9 1998 12:00AM
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