00756134

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/1635-04

http://scholar.google.com...nson&publication_year=1998

Three different modeling approaches were applied to explain truck accidents at interchanges in Washington State during a 27-month period. Three models were developed for each ramp type including linear regression, neural networks, and a hybrid system using fuzzy logic and neural networks. The study showed that linear regression was able to predict accident frequencies that fell within one standard deviation from the overall mean of the dependent variable. However, the coefficient of determination was very low in all cases. The other two artificial intelligence (AI) approaches showed a high level of performance in identifying different patterns of accidents in the training data and presented a better fit when compared to the regression model. However, the ability of these AI models to predict test data that were not included in the training process showed unsatisfactory results.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1635, Safety Analysis Related to Highway Design, Crash Costs, and Traffic Records Systems; Methodologies for Evaluating Safety Improvements.

English

p. 30-36

1998

Transportation Research Record

0309065070

Figures (3) ; References (20) ; Tables (5)

Artificial intelligence; Forecasting; Fuzzy logic; Interchange ramps; Mathematical models; Neural networks; Regression analysis; Truck crashes

Washington (State)

Washington (State)

Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I81: Accident Statistics

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Nov 9 1998 12:00AM

• ACCIDENT MODELS FOR TWO-LANE RURAL SEGMENTS AND INTERSECTIONS
• ALLOCATING THE COSTS OF MOTOR VEHICLE CRASHES BETWEEN VEHICLE TYPES
• APPLYING THE ORDERED PROBIT MODEL TO INJURY SEVERITY IN TRUCK-PASSENGER CAR REAR-END COLLISIONS
• CONFLICT ANALYSIS FOR DOUBLE LEFT-TURN LANES WITH PROTECTED-PLUS-PERMITTED SIGNAL PHASES
• CONSIDERATION OF BOLLARD TREATMENT AT EXIT GORE AREAS
• DEVELOPMENT OF EXPECTED CONFLICT VALUE TABLES FOR UNSIGNALIZED THREE-LEGGED INTERSECTIONS
• DEVELOPMENT OF SAFETY-BASED LEVEL-OF-SERVICE PARAMETERS FOR TWO-WAY STOP-CONTROLLED INTERSECTIONS
• DISAGGREGATE SAFETY PERFORMANCE MODELS FOR SIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS ON ONTARIO PROVINCIAL ROADS
• EFFECT OF ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ON DRIVER SPEED: A CASE STUDY
• EFFECTS OF A TOWAWAY REPORTING THRESHOLD ON CRASH ANALYSIS RESULTS
• EVALUATING MEDIAN CROSSOVER LIKELIHOODS WITH CLUSTERED ACCIDENT COUNTS: AN EMPIRICAL INQUIRY USING THE RANDOM EFFECTS NEGATIVE BINOMIAL MODEL
• EXPLORATORY MULTIVARIABLE ANALYSES OF CALIFORNIA DRIVER RECORD ACCIDENT RATES
• INVESTIGATION OF NATIONAL HIGHWAY SYSTEM ROADWAYS IN THE HIGHWAY SAFETY INFORMATION SYSTEM STATES
• INVESTIGATION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF BOULEVARD ROADWAYS
• POLICE REPORTING OF PEDESTRIANS AND BICYCLISTS TREATED IN HOSPITAL EMERGENCY ROOMS
• PREDICTING VEHICLE OCCUPANCIES FROM ACCIDENT DATA: AN ACCIDENT SEVERITY APPROACH
• SAFETY BENEFITS OF SPIRAL TRANSITIONS ON HORIZONTAL CURVES ON TWO-LANE RURAL ROADS
• SAFETY EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE SIGNAL HEAD DESIGN
• SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN THE AGE-RELATED COLLISION RISK OF ONTARIO DRIVERS
• SPOT SPEED ANALYSIS ON URBAN ROADS IN RIYADH
• TWO PROBLEMS OF AVERAGING ARISING IN THE ESTIMATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ACCIDENTS AND TRAFFIC FLOW