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Title:

DISCUSSION PANEL REPORT: AIRCRAFT AND ENGINE MANUFACTURERS

Accession Number:

00721444

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

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Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00978515

Abstract:

The workshop panel of aircraft and engine manufacturers reviewed forecasts submitted by each participant in advance of the workshop and considered the underlying issues, assumptions, and methodologies employed in making these forecasts. The panel's consensus was that worldwide passenger traffic would grow at an average annual rate of 4.9% over the next 15 years. At this rate, traffic would more than double by 2009. The average load factor was predicted to increase from 67% today to 69% by the end of the period, contributing to increased aircraft productivity and consequently lowering the demand for new aircraft. The 15-year forecasts of deliveries of turboprop and small jet aircraft were 4,000 deliveries and 1,800 retirements, giving a net fleet growth of 2,200. The passenger jet fleet was predicted to grow by 4,800 (reaching a fleet total of 15,000 aircraft) with forecasts of 8,500 deliveries and 3,700 retirements. The assumptions and expectations used to calculate individual forecasts were varied, and the panel spent most of its time exploring qualitative issues.

Supplemental Notes:

Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Ives, G

Pagination:

p. 51-56

Publication Date:

1996-2

Serial:

Transportation Research Circular

Issue Number: 454
Publisher: Transportation Research Board
ISSN: 0097-8515

Conference:

Future Aviation Activities: Ninth International Workshop

Location: National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C.
Date: 1995-9-18 to 1995-9-20
Sponsors: Federal Aviation Administration

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures (5) ; Tables (2)

Uncontrolled Terms:

Aircraft retirements; Fleet size

Old TRIS Terms:

Subject Areas:

Aviation; Highways; Maintenance and Preservation; Planning and Forecasting; Vehicles and Equipment

Files:

TRIS, TRB

Created Date:

May 14 1996 12:00AM

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