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Title: TEMPORAL EFFECTS OF INCIDENTS ON TRANSIT RIDERSHIP IN ORANGE COUNTY, CALIFORNIA
Accession Number: 00615784
Record Type: Component
Availability: Find a library where document is available Abstract: Aggregate level transit ridership forecasting models often are based on time series data, with potential serial autocorrelation properties that can bias parameter estimates upward and error estimates downward, and skew forecasting confidence intervals and their resulting interpretation significantly. A combined time series and cross-sectional regression model of transit ridership is developed that incorporates temporal variations as well as supply, demand, and pricing characteristics of the market for transit services in Orange County, California, between 1973 and 1989. It was found that Orange County transit ridership exhibits significant serial and seasonal fluctuations, which were captured in the model. The temporary and lingering effects of incidents were also tested. The 1979 oil shortage was shown to have a large positive impact on transit ridership, which dwindled quite rapidly once the oil shortage ended. A work stoppage of 6 weeks' duration in 1981 had a large negative impact on transit ridership, which dwindled only slowly. A shorter work stoppage in 1986, during which limited service was provided by transit agency administrative personnel, had a much smaller negative impact than the 1981 work stoppage, which dwindled much more rapidly. Transit fare and gasoline pricing variables were found to have no significant effect on transit ridership in the preferred temporally based model. Transit fares did not increase much in real terms over the period covered, and did not reflect variations in transit service provided, being predicated on a simple county-wide flat fare basis. Over 70% of all Orange County transit riders were captive riders in 1987, having no car available to them for commuting or other travel purposes, making the price of gasoline basically irrevelant to the majority of such transit riders in the shorter term.
Supplemental Notes: This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1297, Public Transit Research: Management and Planning 1991. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
Monograph Title: Monograph Accession #: 01407095
Authors: Ferguson, ErikPagination: p. 136-147
Publication Date: 1991
Serial: ISBN: 0309051037
Features: Figures
(6)
; References
(18)
; Tables
(7)
TRT Terms: Uncontrolled Terms: Geographic Terms: Old TRIS Terms: Subject Areas: Energy; Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General)
Files: TRIS, TRB
Created Date: Sep 30 1991 12:00AM
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