00605641

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...trr/1990/1287/1287-007.pdf

https://scholar.google.co....+Lu&publication_year=1990

In a dynamic (real-time) traffic control system, the accuracy of the prediction of traffic characteristics such as flow, speed, and headway is one of the key factors affecting the performance of the system. Because the traffic characteristics can be described by stochastic processes, nonlinear and time-variate types of prediction models could be more adequate than linear or time-invariate prediction models. A traffic control system model for traffic flow is described, and the importance of the accuracy of the prediction model is emphasized. Then, the concept of adaptive prediction of traffic flow is introduced, and its mathematical derivation and the least-mean-square algorithm are described. As an experiment to validate the adaptive prediction system, a sine function is used to simulate traffic flow as input to the adaptive prediction system. Finally, the adaptive prediction system is applied to actual traffic flow data collected from a highway network. The predicted traffic flow is then compared with the real traffic flow. The performance of the model as to its dynamic response to a step function, convergence of the adaptive prediction system, and related matters are also discussed.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1287, Traffic Flow, Capacity, Roadway Lighting, and Urban Traffic Systems 1990. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

01411069

p. 54-61

1990

Transportation Research Record

0309050626

Figures (10) ; References (17)

Accuracy; Algorithms; Dynamic loads; Forecasting; Functions (Mathematics); Mathematical models; Performance; Traffic flow; Traffic simulation; Validation

Dynamic response

Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I71: Traffic Theory

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Mar 31 1991 12:00AM

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