00605636

Component

http://onlinepubs.trb.org...trr/1990/1287/1287-002.pdf

https://scholar.google.co...ulos&publication_year=1990

The effectiveness of route guidance and advanced control strategies in a corridor is a function of the time-dependent interaction between freeway and arterial flows in response to traffic conditions and information available to drivers. Although demand diversion is an essential element of optimal corridor management, no on-line demand predictor has considered explicitly the effect of control on the demand to be predicted. As a result, existing control strategies are mostly empirical and can address only known or anticipated peak-period loads. A new approach to modeling on-line demand diversion in freeway corridors is directly applicable to dynamic control and vehicle guidance. This new method treats freeway demand as a utility-maximizing, decision-making unit with ramp diversion behavior dependent primarily on the travel delay caused by congestion, as modified by on-line information and traffic control strategies. The method combines behavioral modeling with an extended Kalman filter to identify the diversion model parameters recursively using the most recent prediction error in real time. Because diversion prediction does not require upstream flow information, system instrumentation requirements are substantially avoided. The method was used for on-line prediction of demand and diversion at freeway entrance ramps of the I-35W corridor in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area. Test results from 5-min prediction on several weekdays indicate the entrance ramp diversion proportion is predicted with 90 to 95% accuracy.

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1287, Traffic Flow, Capacity, Roadway Lighting, and Urban Traffic Systems 1990. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

01411069

p. 11-19

1990

Transportation Research Record

0309050626

Figures (7) ; References (19)

Accuracy; Computers; Demand; Forecasting; Freeways; Interchange ramps; Progressive traffic signal control; Traffic congestion; Traffic delays; Traffic diversion

Minneapolis (Minnesota); Saint Paul (Minnesota)

Minneapolis (Minnesota); Saint Paul (Minnesota)

Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I73: Traffic Control

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Mar 31 1991 12:00AM

• ADAPTIVE FORECASTING OF FREEWAY TRAFFIC CONGESTION
• CAPACITY AND DELAY ESTIMATION FOR PRIORITY UNSIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS: CONCEPTUAL AND EMPIRICAL ISSUES
• CAPACITY AND SPEED-FLOW ANALYSIS OF THE QUEEN ELIZABETH WAY IN ONTARIO
• COMBINED EFFECT OF RADIUS AND PEDESTRIANS ON RIGHT-TURN SATURATION FLOW AT SIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS
• CONFLICT SIMULATION IN INTRAS: APPLICATION TO WEAVING AREA CAPACITY ANALYSIS
• CONGESTION IDENTIFICATION ASPECTS OF THE MCMASTER INCIDENT DETECTION ALGORITHM
• CONSPICUITY OF RETROREFLECTIVE SIGNS AND DEVICES AT NIGHT WHEN DRIVING WITH ONLY ONE HEADLAMP WORKING
• COUNTERBEAM LIGHTING, A PROVEN ALTERNATIVE FOR THE LIGHTING OF THE ENTRANCE ZONES OF ROAD TUNNELS
• DETECTING ERRONEOUS LOOP DETECTOR DATA IN A FREEWAY TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
• ESTIMATING AVERAGE CYCLE LENGTHS AND GREEN INTERVALS OF SEMIACTUATED SIGNAL OPERATIONS FOR LEVEL-OF-SERVICE ANALYSIS
• ESTIMATING CAPACITY OF AN ALL-WAY-STOP-CONTROLLED INTERSECTION
• FLOW PROCESSES AT A FREEWAY BOTTLENECK
• LATE-NIGHT TRAFFIC SIGNAL CONTROL STRATEGIES FOR ARTERIAL SYSTEMS
• MEASURING DELAY AND SIMULATING PERFORMANCE AT ISOLATED SIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS USING CUMULATIVE CURVES
• MEASURING LEVEL OF SERVICE OF TWO-LANE HIGHWAYS BY OVERTAKINGS
• MODEL OF TURNING MOVEMENT PROPENSITY
• MODELING THE LEFT-TURN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR FOR PERMITTED LEFT TURNS MADE FROM SHARED LANE GROUPS
• MULTIBAND--A VARIABLE-BANDWIDTH ARTERIAL PROGRESSION SCHEME
• PREDICTION OF TRAFFIC FLOW BY AN ADAPTIVE PREDICTION SYSTEM
• SIMULTANEOUS OPTIMIZATION OF SIGNAL SETTINGS AND LEFT-TURN TREATMENTS
• TESTING AND FIELD IMPLEMENTATION OF THE MINNESOTA VIDEO DETECTION SYSTEM (AUTOSCOPE)
• TRAFFIC CONFLICT VALUES FOR THREE-LEG, UNSIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS
• TRAFFIC SIGNAL DELAY MODEL FOR NONUNIFORM ARRIVALS
• WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY PARKING ACTION PLAN--A CAMPUS PARKING CASE STUDY