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Title:

TRUCK ACCIDENT INVOLVEMENT WITH AND WITHOUT FRONT-AXLE BRAKES: APPLICATION FOR CASE-CONTROL METHODOLOGY

Accession Number:

00602711

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

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Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309050529

Abstract:

Methods of predicting the change in accident involvement of heavy trucks that would result from the mandatory installation of tractor-trailer front-axle brakes were identified. The choice of method for evaluating the front-axle brake issue became controversial as a result of the finding that a system-wide accident and exposure study would be prohibitively expensive and would take longer to complete than the life expectancy of the regulatory decision. The methodology known as "case-control" seemed an attractive alternative, but its previous use for heavy-truck accidents had been severely challenged. The usefulness of this method may have been obscured during a period of rightful questioning of the interpretation of the results from earlier case-control studies. A detailed analysis was made of the statistical limitations and practical feasibility of the case-control methodology. A computer simulation demonstrated that the method can be used to provide unbiased estimates of the coefficients in a logit-type causal accident model, and that only one control per accident is required. Further, it was recommended that rather than focusing on accident-involvement odds ratios, the model from the case-control methodology should be used in a probabilistic economic analysis to answer the regulatory question. Case-control was found to be a suitable approach for evaluating the front brake issue, but only at a level of threshold economic benefit and not in terms of absolute accident rate (number/veh-km). Moreover, it should be implemented only with certain safeguards, notably the validation of the randomness of control vehicle selection using classified vehicle counts. Estimated costs of implementation, although much below those of system-wide inspection surveys of truck exposure and accidents, were nevertheless substantial.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1270, Safety Research: Accident Studies, Enforcement, EMS, Management, and Simulation 1990. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved

Monograph Accession #:

00620472

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Lee-Gosselin, Martin E H
Richardson, A J
Taylor, Gord

Pagination:

p. 46-56

Publication Date:

1990

Serial:

Transportation Research Record

Issue Number: 1270
Publisher: Transportation Research Board
ISSN: 0361-1981

ISBN:

0-309-05052-9

Features:

References (10) ; Tables (3)

Uncontrolled Terms:

Probabilistic analysis

Old TRIS Terms:

Subject Areas:

Data and Information Technology; Economics; Highways; Motor Carriers; Safety and Human Factors; Vehicles and Equipment; I80: Accident Studies; I91: Vehicle Design and Safety

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Dec 31 1990 12:00AM

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