00474684

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The purpose of this study is to illustrate how a probabilistic risk assessment can be applied to a regulatory problem--specific reference is made here to the determination of an authorized limit for the transit of radioactive materials through the Mont Blanc Tunnel. The latter is 12-km long and is situated under the highest mountain in Europe. Hazardous materials are subjected to much more stringent regulations than are required by international regulatory agreement (by the Accord Dangereuse Routier and International Atomic Energy Agency). The transportation of small amounts of dispersible radioactive material is currently permitted for a truck content that is only one-third of the activity limit, A sub 2, that is applicable to a single package in the general traffic. The consequences and occurrence probabilities of an accident have been investigated. The economic impact of an accident was found to be quite independent of the transported activity. The mathematical expectation of the economic losses (post-accident radiation monitoring, shutdown of the tunnel, and decontamination work) currently amounts to $6 a year. The health impact is a result of either the immediate effects of radiation or the delayed effects (cancers and genetic effects). The expected number of such effects is very low: 0.0000000310 per year. In the event that an accident has occurred, this impact was found to increase in proportion to the transported quantity. With respect to the decision-making problem, the following feature is important: Because the number of transits decreases when the allowed quantity for each passenger increases, so does the probability of an accident. The mathematical expectation of the risk therefore decreases (economic effects) or is constant (health effects) when the limit is loosened. This decrease does not allow for deriving a limit from this criterion. Other criteria have been envisioned. A comparison with road accident victims and other allowed hazardous materials proved that the present level, or even a higher level, is still acceptable.

This paper appears in State-of-the-Art Report 3, Addendum: Recent Advances in Hazardous Materials Transportation Research: An International Exchange. The paper was presented at the Conference on Recent Advances in Hazardous Materials Transportation Research: An International Exchange held in Lake Buena Vista, Florida, November 10-13, 1985.

Addendum

p. 24-33

1987

State-of-the-Art Report

0-309-03973-8

Figures (5) ; References (12) ; Tables (4)

Conferences; Decision making; Economic impacts; Hazardous materials; Health; Probability; Radioactive materials; Regulations; Risk assessment; Transportation; Tunnels

Probabilistic analysis

Economics; Law; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors; Transportation (General); I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB

Oct 31 1987 12:00AM

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