01697787

Component

New mobility services, including car sharing and automated vehicles (AVs), are changing the transportation ecosystem - requiring advanced forecasting systems to support policymaking in the context of social and technological uncertainty. This research demonstrates the feasibility of developing forecasting tools that account for the acquisition of private autonomous vehicles (PAVs) at the household level. Specifically, a household mobility model is developed that incorporates auto ownership, car-sharing membership, monthly transit pass ownership and propensity towards PAV acquisition. This study fuses data from a regional household travel survey, the Transportation Tomorrow Survey (2016), with a one-time, concurrent internet-based survey of 18-75-year olds with questions related to AVs and car sharing membership in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. This research allows for the examination of the trade-offs between established mobility tools (car ownership and transit pass-holding) and new mobility tools (car-sharing membership and utilization of AVs (at some point in the future)). Findings confirm that forecasting future travel behavior will require a more complex modeling structure than simply predicting auto ownership levels: new alternatives are increasingly emerging and act as trade-offs to one another. Model results indicate that both PAV ownership and car share membership are likely to compete with a public transit lifestyle (Metropass holding), while PAV propensity and car share membership, somewhat surprisingly, appear to function as complements, indicating a household highly invested in expanding mobility, particularly through new mobility options. These findings must be further probed, but they suggest significant impacts on public policy objectives which aim to increase public transit use.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB20 Standing Committee on Effects of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) on Travel Choices.

19-04979

English

8p

2019

Transportation Research Board 98th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

References; Tables

Automobile ownership; Autonomous vehicles; Feasibility analysis; Forecasting; Households; Mobility; Public transit; Travel behavior; Travel surveys; Vehicle sharing

Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA)

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Vehicles and Equipment

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2019 Paper #19-04979

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 7 2018 9:37AM