01697622

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The new model applied in travel mode choice based on mental accounts theory proposed by Richard H. Thaler, 2017 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences,, was presented in this paper. The new model can solve the problems of describing the boundedly rational mode choice behavior involving multi-dimensional attributes, which is impossible for prospect theory. The most prominent contribution of this paper is to put forward a specific form of the model, which can be applied to traffic mode prediction practically. The research greatly expands the application scope of mental accounts theory. There are three main contributions to modeling. Firstly, the authors find that travelers adapt a topical account spontaneously as decision principle in the mode choice. Then, a form of value function suitable for this decision principle is proposed. Secondly, a reference point setting method corresponded to traveler habits and preferences is proposed. Thirdly, a clear expression of time weighting function was improved, which further validates the differences between time and cost preferences in travel decision-making. Moreover, the prediction accuracy of the new model is compared with other models. Under determined conditions (p=1), the Match Ratio of the new model is 70.1% greater than 57.4% of the multinomial logit (MNL) model. Under risk conditions (0<p<1), the Match Ratio of the new model is 58.9%, which is greater than 29% of the Prospect Theory model significantly.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB10 Standing Committee on Traveler Behavior and Values.

19-05346

English

5p

2019

Transportation Research Board 98th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References

Decision making; Economics; Mathematical models; Mode choice; Travel behavior

Economic theory

Economics; Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2019 Paper #19-05346

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 7 2018 9:33AM