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Title:

Do Higher Fuel Prices Help Reduce Road Traffic Accidents?

Accession Number:

01697584

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

Road traffic accidents have decreased in most developed nations over the last decade. This has been attributed to improvement in vehicle and road design, medical technology as well as driver education and training. Recent evidence however indicates that fuel price changes have a significant impact on road traffic accidents through other mediating factors such as more fuel-efficient driving behaviours, less car travel through changing modes and speed reduction on high-speed roads. However, there is a lack of evidence to support the effects of changes in fuel prices on road traffic accidents in the UK which is the focus of this paper. For this purpose, weekly time series of fuel prices (between 2005-2015) have been used to study the effects on road traffic accidents using Prais-Winsten model of first order autoregressive (AR1) and the Box and Jenkins seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models (SARIMA). This study is designed to quantify the effects of fuel price on road traffic accidents frequency through changes and adjustments in travel behaviour. The findings provide the evidence that the relationship between fuel prices and fatal road accident is negative, with every 1% increase in fuel price there is a 0.4% reduction in the fatal road traffic accidents frequency. However, with recent government plans to ban petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040, wiping away benefits from high fuel prices through reducing fatal accidents, to gain environmental benefits, transport policy makers need reviewing their policy to reduce road accident externality in the absence of road fuel prices.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ANB10 Standing Committee on Transportation Safety Management.

Report/Paper Numbers:

19-03653

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

Authors:

Naqvi, Nadia K
Quddus, Mohammed
Enoch, Marcus

Pagination:

9p

Publication Date:

2019

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 98th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2019-1-13 to 2019-1-17
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; References; Tables

Geographic Terms:

United Kingdom

Subject Areas:

Data and Information Technology; Economics; Highways; Safety and Human Factors

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2019 Paper #19-03653

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Dec 7 2018 9:32AM