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Title:

Transit Customer Loyalty and Mode Shifts: Empirical Evidence on Driving Factors and Evaluation of Stated-Preference Predictive Accuracy

Accession Number:

01663664

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

In late 2013, a large-scale study on the link between service quality, satisfaction, and customer loyalty was conducted with users of San Francisco's transit network, Muni. This paper presents the results of a follow-up survey, administered approximately a year after the end of the study. The empirical data show that 44% of respondents were using Muni less or not at all anymore. After excluding respondents who had relocated out of San Francisco, it is found that the highest-cited reason for decrease and cessation was a lifestyle change, closely followed by schedule- and reliability-related variables. Travel environment variables were less frequently mentioned. A previously developed latent variable choice model is then re-estimated with the revealed preference data. Furthermore, several predictors of future travel behavior that were measured during the study are evaluated. The three predictors most correlated with observed behavior a year later are short-term and long-term intentions, and short-term preference, thus validating the Theory of Planned Behavior as a framework for predicting mode shifts. Nonetheless, considerable discrepancies are found between predicted and observed behavior. Participants were marginally better at predicting that their travel behavior would remain the same than at predicting a change. The discrepancies are analyzed with three Logit models, and it is shown that there are systematic effects of various socioeconomic and demographic variables on the prediction accuracy.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AP015 Standing Committee on Transit Capacity and Quality of Service.

Report/Paper Numbers:

18-05617

Language:

English

Authors:

Carrel, Andre
Li, Mingfeng

Pagination:

3p

Publication Date:

2018

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2018-1-7 to 2018-1-11
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Geographic Terms:

San Francisco (California)

Subject Areas:

Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2018 Paper #18-05617

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Jan 8 2018 11:26AM