01657529

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Quasi-induced exposure (QIE) technique has gradually gained the popularity in the field of traffic safety in the recent decades. One of the advantages is that it can estimate the relative risk of a particular driving cohort based upon the traffic crash data only. Traditionally, it is argued that the QIE technique may not be applicable for the analysis of fatal crashes, which could cause “crash proneness bias” for the estimated exposure. There is, however, no specific research available to provide the quantitative evidence to support the argument. In order to verify the validity of the QIE technique on the fatal crashes, the paper proposes to compare 1) different exposure estimates for fatal, nonfatal, and overall crashes with the use of the QIE technique and 2) the exposures estimated by QIE and vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Results suggest that 1) the QIE exposure estimates for the fatal crashes differ significantly from those of nonfatal crashes and VMT; and 2) some circumstances are identified to be in good agreement, such as the disaggregated functional roadway classifications, driver gender, and age group. The findings serve to improve the applicability of the QIE on the fatal crashes.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ANB20 Standing Committee on Safety Data, Analysis and Evaluation.

18-01930

English

12p

2018

Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

References (43) ; Tables

Crash characteristics; Crash injuries; Crash rates; Drivers; Fatalities; Mathematical methods; Risk assessment; Validity

Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2018 Paper #18-01930

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 8 2018 10:28AM