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Title:

Head-On Crash Probability Estimation on Two-Lane Undivided Highway from Vision-Based Classified Trajectory

Accession Number:

01656608

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

This paper endeavors to develop a model that estimates head-on crash probability from classified vehicle trajectory. The model formulation considered: (1) drivers’ overtaking decision (OD); and (2) time-to-collision (TTC) on two-lane undivided highway. Drivers’ overtaking decision was modeled using nonlinear random parameter multivariate binary logistic regression. It considered variables related to both traffic (i.e. vehicle speed and spacing) and drivers’ characteristics (i.e. aggressiveness). In contrast, TTC was determined using a new formulation that considered the dynamic acceleration of the vehicles in addition to the vehicular speed and spacing. Incorporation of two new parameters, i.e. overtaking importance factor (OIF) and crash frequency parameter (CFP) enabled the estimation of crash probability combining OD and TTC. Background subtraction technique along with Kalman filter was used to obtain vehicle trajectories from real-time video. Variable inputs required for calibrating the OD model were generated by constructing adjacency matrices among the vehicles. Exploiting these inputs, Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was applied to obtain calibrated parameters of the OD model for different types of vehicle. Calibration result showed that subject vehicle speed and the subject-opposing spacing are the most significant variables influencing the overtaking decision on two-lane undivided highway. Besides, the maximum head-on crash probability for different types of vehicles was determined and it was found that bus has maximum crash probability. Finally, the nomographs established in this paper ensures easy determination of the crash probability.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ANB20 Standing Committee on Safety Data, Analysis and Evaluation.

Report/Paper Numbers:

18-01279

Language:

English

Authors:

Haque, Nazmul
Hadiuzzaman, Md
Rahman, Fahmida
Siam, Mohammad Rayeedul Kalam

Pagination:

6p

Publication Date:

2018

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2018-1-7 to 2018-1-11
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; References (10) ; Tables

Uncontrolled Terms:

Time to collision

Subject Areas:

Highways; Safety and Human Factors

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2018 Paper #18-01279

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Jan 8 2018 10:19AM