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Title:

Safety Analytics for Integrating Crash Frequency and Real-Time Risk Modeling for Expressways

Accession Number:

01657958

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

To find crash contributing factors, there have been numerous crash frequency and real-time safety studies, but such studies have been conducted independently. Until this point, no researcher has simultaneously analyzed crash frequency and real-time crash risk to test whether integrating them could better explain crash occurrence. Therefore, this study aims at integrating crash frequency and real-time safety analyses using expressway data. A Bayesian integrated model and a non-integrated model were built: the integrated model linked the crash frequency and the real-time models by adding the logarithm of the estimated expected crash frequency in the real-time model; the non-integrated model independently estimated the crash frequency and the real-time crash risk. The results showed that the integrated model outperformed the non-integrated model, as it provided much better model results for both the crash frequency and the real-time models. This result indicated that the added component, the logarithm of the expected crash frequency, successfully linked and provided useful information to the two models. This study uncovered few variables that are not typically included in the crash frequency analysis. For example, the average daily standard deviation of speed, which was aggregated based on speed at 1-minute intervals, had a positive effect on crash frequency. In conclusion, this study suggested a methodology to improve the crash frequency and real-time models by integrating them, and it might inspire future researchers to understand crash mechanisms better.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ANB20 Standing Committee on Safety Data, Analysis and Evaluation.

Report/Paper Numbers:

18-00800

Language:

English

Authors:

Wang, Ling

ORCID 0000-0001-7901-3995

Abdel-Aty, Mohamed
Lee, Jaeyoung

Pagination:

4p

Publication Date:

2018

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2018-1-7 to 2018-1-11
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Tables

Subject Areas:

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2018 Paper #18-00800

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Jan 8 2018 10:12AM