01623339

Component

In extension of standardized benefit-cost analysis (BCA) schemes for road infrastructure, this article proposes a potentially novel approach to the appraisal of an accelerated deployment of advanced road vehicle technologies – to be triggered by complementary state subsidies and/or other measures with budgetary implications. For the justification for subsidizing passenger vehicle purchases by a social surplus, a welfare criterion is developed for three different categories of prioritized innovative car technologies, namely alternative drives, car-to-x communication capabilities, and collaborative shared mobility (particularly, carsharing and e-hailing/ridesharing). The distinguishing methodological features are (i) the unified capturing of their innovation dynamics and (ii) the consideration of network effects through combination with existing transport supply demand models, which should allow for a refinement of appraisal techniques – towards a more effective allocation of public funds based on more realistic predictions. The analysis is centered around the question of reaching the critical proportions of new vehicles and the critical overall proportion throughout the fleet stock. The properties and applicability of the workflow were explored by a case study for Germany until the year of 2040.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABE20 Standing Committee on Transportation Economics.

01618707

17-03433

English

23p

2017

Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Benefit cost analysis; Fleet management; Passenger vehicles; Vehicle fleets

Economics; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Vehicles and Equipment

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2017 Paper #17-03433

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 8 2016 11:17AM