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Title:

Investigating the Scalability in Population Synthesis: A Comparative Approach

Accession Number:

01626165

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

In this paper, the authors investigate the influence of scalability on the accuracy of different synthetic populations using both fitting and generation-based approaches. Most activity-based models need a base-year synthetic population where the agents are described by various attributes. However, when an important number of attributes need to be synthesized, the accuracy of the synthetic population may decrease due the mixed effects of scalability and dimensionality. Based on the workforce survey carried out in Belgium in 2013, the authors analyze the two population synthesis methods for different level of scalability, i.e. two to five attributes and different sample sizes, i.e. 10%, 25% and 50%. The results reveal that the simulation-based approach is more stable than Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) when the number of attributes increases. However, IPF is less sensitive to changes in sample size when compared to the simulation- based approach. From a global perspective, the accuracy of the synthetic populations provided by the simulation-based approach outperforms the ones from IPF for any sample size and any number of attributes. In addition, the authors demonstrate the importance of choosing the correct metric to validate the population. In this regard, the authors show that the trends in terms of root mean square error/mean absolute error (RMSE/MAE) are different from those of square root of the mean square error (SRMSE).

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB40 Standing Committee on Transportation Demand Forecasting. Alternate title: Investigating the Scalability in Population Synthesis: Comparative Approach

Monograph Accession #:

01618707

Report/Paper Numbers:

17-00012

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Saadi, Ismail
Eftekhar, Hamed
Teller, Jacques
Cools, Mario

Pagination:

14p

Publication Date:

2017

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 96th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2017-1-8 to 2017-1-12
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

References; Tables

Geographic Terms:

Belgium

Subject Areas:

Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General)

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2017 Paper #17-00012

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Dec 8 2016 9:55AM