01591787

Component

In urban public transportation system, operators tend to set a series of time points and scheduled travel time to monitor bus operation. Meanwhile, bus drivers are supposed to adjust vehicle speed to keep on schedule. Therefore, scheduled travel time is important for bus planning and operation. This paper aims to develop a multistate-based model to design travel time schedule for fixed transit route. First, the authors introduce multistate model to identify service states and model travel time distribution. Then an optimization model is proposed, followed by a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation based genetic algorithm (GA) procedure to obtain the optimal slack time. Finally, a numerical example from a fixed transit route in the city of Shenzhen, China is used to demonstrate the model applicability. The results show that the multistate model fits real-world travel time better than Lognormal distribution model, and the length of determined slack time reflects existing travel time reliability. The proposed method can be used for reliability analysis and timetable design.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AP050 Standing Committee on Bus Transit Systems.

01584066

16-6936

English

18p

2016

Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; Maps; References; Tables

Bus routes; Monte Carlo method; Reliability; Scheduling; Travel time

Shenzhen (China)

Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2016 Paper #16-6936

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 12 2016 7:01PM