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Title: Modeling Travel Time for Reliability Analysis in a Freeway Network
Accession Number: 01595116
Record Type: Component
Abstract: Travel time reliability is a new way of looking at congestion and unpredictable variation of travel time. The variance or standard deviation of travel time can be used as an indicator for investigating the reliability of a road network. In this paper, a mathematical model dealing with the standard deviation of the total travel time within a freeway network is presented. It is shown that under some suitable assumptions, the variance of the total route travel time can be calculated as a superposition of the variances of travel time in single links or bottlenecks if the variances of total travel time and correlation coefficients between two consecutive links or bottlenecks are known. The variances and correlation coefficients can be calibrated by measurements or simulation. Using a shifted Gamma distribution to describe the total travel time, percentiles and thus the reliability of the total travel time can be quantitatively investigated. The model is calibrated with field data from US and European freeways. As a result, a procedure for estimating travel time reliability in a freeway network is recommended.
Supplemental Notes: This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AHB45 Standing Committee on Traffic Flow Theory and Characteristics.
Monograph Title: Monograph Accession #: 01584066
Report/Paper Numbers: 16-4650
Language: English
Corporate Authors: Transportation Research Board 500 Fifth Street, NW Authors: Wu, NingGeistefeldt, JustinPagination: 19p
Publication Date: 2016
Conference:
Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting
Location:
Washington DC, United States Media Type: Digital/other
Features: Figures; References; Tables
TRT Terms: Geographic Terms: Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management
Source Data: Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2016 Paper #16-4650
Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
Created Date: Jan 12 2016 6:03PM
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