01593750

Component

It has been written that Millennials (born 1982-2000) use cars less often and alternative modes (bike, walk, public transit) more often than those of previous generations. Most travel mode data covers work trips. Therefore, this analysis seeks to determine—in light of current higher Millennial usage of alternative transportation to work—whether we should plan for an increase in demand for alternative transportation to work in the future in the U.S. To answer this question, the Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization (HRTPO) staff isolated the effects on usage of alt-trans-to-work of seven (7) factors (generation, age, era, income, gender, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) status, Urbanized Area status) by compiling and regressing a dataset of National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) records from three different years: 1983, 1995, and 2008/2009. The analysis revealed highly significant relationships between alternative mode usage for commuting and nearly all of the independent variables selected, allowing the authors to forecast—under stated assumptions—an increase in usage of alternative transportation for commuting in the U.S., from 8.2% in 2010 to 8.8% in 2050.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABE70 Standing Committee on Women's Issues in Transportation.

01584066

16-4116

English

21p

2016

Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Age groups; Commuting; Forecasting; Gender; Income; Mode choice; Regression analysis; Transportation modes; Travel demand; Work trips

National Household Travel Survey

United States

Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General)

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2016 Paper #16-4116

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 12 2016 5:49PM