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Title:

Scenario Planning: Tools for Tomorrow
Cover of Scenario Planning: Tools for Tomorrow

Accession Number:

01593549

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

Transportation leaders operate in an ever-evolving world, where an interconnected web of trends, demographics and economies combine to create global impacts. In this environment, it’s not enough to look at the past to understand how the future will unfold. Organizations focusing solely on incremental changes to develop strategic plans may find themselves caught off guard, unable to meet the long-term needs of their constituents. This paper evaluates long-range scenario planning as a valuable tool in developing viable future strategies, understanding how organizations address changing trends and how these shifts may impact future agency goals and strategic purposes. Potential benefits of long-range scenario planning include identifying the need to adjust policies or organizational workflow to become more efficient, or discover the need for new approaches. Scenario planning can also help organizations chart pathways through alternative future views, encouraging adaptability and flexibility, and preparing leaders to watch for signposts. This paper explores how scenario planning can be conducted in a variety of organizational settings, testing similar materials in different settings and reviewing the results to learn how discussions about the future were impacted. Scenario planning doesn’t try to predict the future. Instead, it develops a series of plausible futures and invites participants to think about how best to prepare for a variety of future possibilities. By thinking strategically about what transportation might look like in 50 years, agencies can develop long-range strategic plans — then refine them to develop smart, actionable decisions for today.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABC10 Standing Committee on Strategic Management.

Monograph Accession #:

01584066

Report/Paper Numbers:

16-3950

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Lorenz, Julie
Jones, Jessie
Scheuerman, Michelle

Pagination:

13p

Publication Date:

2016

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2016-1-10 to 2016-1-14
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; References

Subject Areas:

Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General)

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2016 Paper #16-3950

Files:

PRP, TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Jan 12 2016 5:44PM