01589135

Component

Various studies have indicated an apparent lack of analyses associated with the modal choice characteristics of Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) areas. There is limited data and analysis to ascertain the net shift in travel modes of TOD residents before and after relocating to a TOD environment. This research presents methodologies for developing mode choice models for TODs using the travel activity data. Using these methods, two discrete choice models in the 0.25-mile radius of Rosslyn-Ballston corridor transit stations in the Washington Metro area are developed and validated. First, a multinomial logit model is developed using logistic regression to show the modal split among transit, auto-driver, auto-passenger, walk, bike and other in the study area. The primary focus of this TOD mode-share model is on home-based work trips, which predominantly constitute the number of trips in the 24-hour travel activity data. Secondly, a transit-share model is formulated as an innovative combination of the direct generation, urban travel factor (UTF) and logit models. This TOD transit-share model is aimed at determining transit usage in TODs based on household auto ownership as the primary input and only the transit variables (travel time, average wait time and average walk time) as secondary inputs. Results indicate that transit patronage decreases with increase in the household vehicle ownership. Since the input requirements to the TOD transit-share model are minimal, this model structure is expected to be very useful for sketch analysis of many TOD project alternatives. The methodologies presented in this paper are applicable to TODs surrounding major transit stations and can be replicated in urban areas where location specific travel activity data are available. It is recommended that disaggregate models be developed for TODs whenever travel survey data with spatial resolution are available. The need for integrating disaggregate models that are specific to TOD land use into travel demand modeling is highlighted.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB10 Standing Committee on Traveler Behavior and Values.

01584066

16-1304

English

20p

2016

Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; Maps; References; Tables

Automobile ownership; Logits; Methodology; Modal shift; Mode choice; Public transit; Transit oriented development; Travel surveys; Urban travel; Work trips

Rosslyn-Ballston Corridor (Virginia); Washington Metropolitan Area

Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2016 Paper #16-1304

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 12 2016 4:35PM