01557366

Component

Predicting benefits of advanced traveler information systems before implementation is one of the challenges in transportation modeling. Taking into consideration the differences in commuting behavior of unequipped and would-be equipped drivers as well as their different level of perception error is the key factor. Accordingly, it seems that the multi-class approach of traffic assignment can be regarded as one possible solution. However, dealing with the challenge of lack of observed data prior to installation of the system still remains a major concern. To deal with this problem, a double-class stochastic traffic assignment approach is proposed in this study. The network loading procedure follows a paired combinatorial logit model which addresses the classical problem of path overlapping. In addition, the model is origin- destination-specific parameter which enables the modeler to represent different levels of uncertainty and stochasticity involved in route decision making between different origin- destination (OD) pairs by specifying the dispersion parameter in the way that varies over the OD pairs. A heuristic estimation method is also proposed which exempts the modeler from resorting to the route choice data and hampers the challenges involved in estimation of route choice models to a considerable extent. Furthermore, the new perspective from which the estimation parameter is considered provides a more tangible interpretation than the classical approach which allows manipulation of data to obtain some sort of synthesized information as to the route choice behavior of prospective equipped travelers. The proposed estimation method has been applied to an experimental data set and the traffic assignment method was tested on an illustrative network to demonstrate, given the market penetration of the system, how the analyst would be able to provide quantitative evaluations as to the improvements to the network performance after being introduced to information system.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB20 Effects of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) on Travel Choices. Alternate title: Double-Class Structured-Parameter Paired Combinatorial Logit Stochastic Traffic Assignment Approach for Forecasting Benefits of Traveler Information Systems Before Installation

01550057

15-3796

English

19p

2015

Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Advanced traveler information systems; Benefits; Commuting; Estimation theory; Forecasting; Logits; Origin and destination; Stochastic programming; Traffic assignment

Data and Information Technology; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2015 Paper #15-3796

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Dec 30 2014 1:15PM