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Title:

Estimating Probabilistic Impacts of Catastrophic Network Damage from Earthquakes Using Activity-Based Travel Model
Cover of Estimating Probabilistic Impacts of Catastrophic Network Damage from Earthquakes Using Activity-Based Travel Model

Accession Number:

01550189

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

Transportation Research Board Business Office

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Abstract:

In this paper, the authors present a framework for a probabilistic risk assessment of catastrophic network damage from earthquakes using a practical activity-based travel model. The travel model captures variable demand, non-car travel modes, and interdependencies between the road and transit network, features often missing in probabilistic network risk studies to date. The authors have adapted this model for estimating network performance and regional impacts after catastrophic network damage. They demonstrate the framework with a case study of earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area, including damage to the extensive road and transit networks. For the case study, the authors partnered with the local Master Planning Organization (MPO) to demonstrate the method with an activity-based model used in practice. In addition, while most work to date in the transportation field focuses on a single deterministic earthquake event, the authors apply state-of-the-art seismic risk assessment including a stochastic set of earthquake events, spatially-correlated ground-motion intensity maps, damage maps for bridges and other structures, practical network performance measures, and the probabilistic risk to different communities and households. One result of this framework is quantifying the annual rate of exceeding various levels of loss in accessibility for each community and main socio-economic group in the entire region. The presented method offers a rare level of detail for understanding the potential impacts of earthquakes to travel-related outcomes, and thus informing mitigation efforts and emergency planning.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABE40 Critical Transportation Infrastructure Protection.

Monograph Accession #:

01550057

Report/Paper Numbers:

15-2366

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Miller, Mahalia
Cortes, Samuel
Ory, Dave
Baker, Jack W

Pagination:

19p

Publication Date:

2015

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2015-1-11 to 2015-1-15
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; Maps; References (27)

Geographic Terms:

San Francisco Bay Area

Subject Areas:

Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies; Transportation (General); I21: Planning of Transport Infrastructure; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2015 Paper #15-2366

Files:

PRP, TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Dec 30 2014 12:50PM