01516038

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2459-04

A transportation network is the economic backbone of a developed country. For that reason, it is important that the network maintain functionality after catastrophic natural events and minimize downtime to reduce adverse effects on society and the economy. A holistic framework that integrates seismic risk, vulnerability of system components, and a traffic model is developed. This framework is used to evaluate the direct and indirect costs associated with extreme seismic events. The combined effect of ground motion and liquefaction is considered to estimate the seismic risk of the system. Bridges are considered the most vulnerable network components. The concept of fragility curves is used to combine the probability of bridge failure with the postevent functionality of the network. An integrated traffic model is used to predict route choices after an earthquake. Finally, the developed framework is used to estimate the earthquake risk of the test bed transportation network in the San Francisco Bay Area of California. The direct and indirect costs associated with several earthquake scenarios in the region are estimated, and annual risk curves are developed.

01551909

14-5513

English

pp 29–36

2014

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309295512

Print

Figures (8) ; References (28)

Earthquakes; Highway bridges; Highways; Liquefaction; Losses; Risk analysis; Traffic models

Transportation networks

San Francisco Bay Area

Bridges and other structures; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 27 2014 3:56PM

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