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Title:

Modeling Crash and Fatality Counts Along Mainlanes and Frontage Roads Across Texas: The Roles of Design, the Built Environment, and Weather

Accession Number:

01519565

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

Transportation Research Board Business Office

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Abstract:

Traffic safety is a top priority for most transportation agencies and many governments. In this study, the geometric details of Texas’ extensive highway network were mapped to a variety of traffic, demographic, and built environment variables, including land use, truck volumes, traffic intensity, local population and jobs density, rainfall, income, and education levels. A zero- inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model was used to allow for excess zeros and over-dispersion, and was statistically preferred to the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and negative binomial (NB) models, thanks to lower prediction errors and more robust parameter inference. Estimation results show how crash frequencies and fatality rates clearly rise with local jobs and population densities (as proxies for land use intensities), as well as rainfall. Interestingly, speed limits and distances to the nearest hospitals have negative associations with segment-based crash rates (everything else constant) but, as expected, positive associations with fatality rates (presumably due to more severe collision impacts at higher speeds and time lost in transporting crash victims).

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ANB20 Safety Data, Analysis and Evaluation. Alternate title: Modeling Crash and Fatality Counts Along Main Lanes and Frontage Roads Across Texas: Roles of Design, Built Environment, and Weather

Monograph Accession #:

01503729

Report/Paper Numbers:

14-1829

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Xu, Jian
Kockelman, Kara
Wang, Yiyi

Pagination:

21p

Publication Date:

2014

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC
Date: 2014-1-12 to 2014-1-16
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; References; Tables

Uncontrolled Terms:

Crash counts

Geographic Terms:

Texas

Subject Areas:

Design; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning; I82: Accidents and Transport Infrastructure; I83: Accidents and the Human Factor

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2014 Paper #14-1829

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Jan 27 2014 2:39PM