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Title:

Direct and Lagged Effects of Adverse Winter Weather Conditions on Operating Speed in Urban and Rural Highways: A Time-Series Analysis

Accession Number:

01517533

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

Transportation Research Board Business Office

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Abstract:

This paper investigates the direct and lagged effects of adverse winter weather conditions on the operating speed of a number of highway segments in Ontario using a time-series approach. The effect of adverse weather was studied using data from multiple sites including both urban and rural highways, considering weekdays versus weekends separately. For this purpose, a large dataset containing hourly traffic data, weather variables (temperature, snow, wind speed, etc.), and surface conditions were used. Some previous studies have examined the effect of snowstorms on traffic parameters; however, little has been done regarding their spillover effects (lagged effects). Extreme events or weather conditions might have a strong effect on traffic conditions not only during these events, but also before and after such events. In this study, time-series regression techniques―in particular, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models―were used to model highway operating speed. These methods are able to consider the serial correlation among error terms. From the results, it can be inferred that snow storms have a statistically significant effect on speed. The lagged effects are however offset by the time and intensity of winter maintenance operations during and after the event. The effect of weather also varies depending on the type of site (urban or rural) and day of the week. The results of this study can be applied in quantifying the mobility effect of winter weather and benefits of winter road maintenance.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AHD65 Winter Maintenance.

Monograph Accession #:

01503729

Report/Paper Numbers:

14-1792

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Fu, Ting
Heydari, Shahram
Miranda-Moreno, Luis F
Fu, Liping

Pagination:

14p

Publication Date:

2014

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC
Date: 2014-1-12 to 2014-1-16
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; References; Tables

Subject Areas:

Highways; Maintenance and Preservation; Operations and Traffic Management; I62: Winter Maintenance; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2014 Paper #14-1792

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Jan 27 2014 2:39PM