01515644

Component

The induced traffic model is an essential component of travel demand analysis, which also is a valuable determinant for economic benefit assessment, environment impact assessment and road safety. Following the body of researches, using the elasticity models is an important tool for the study of induced traffic. This paper aims to find the most suitable elasticity model based on the set of panel data regarding annual observations of 30 cities and provinces across China (except Chongqing city) for the years 1990-2010. To derive the ideal elasticity model, several basic elasticity models are included, among them: the elasticity-based model, distributed lag model, growth model and fixed-effect model; also discussed are advanced elasticity models, such as the three stages of least squares (3SLS). Lane-kilometers in China are found to have a statistically significant relationship with Passenger Kilometers of Transport (PKT) measurements of about 0.026-0.274 in the short-term and 0.367-0.773 in the long-term. Population and Gross Regional Product (GRP) numbers are also considered in basic elasticity models. Based on the detailed analysis of empirical results, the 3SLS is judged as the best suitable model for China. It can reflect the time effect, consider endogenous variables (including congestion and vehicle stock) and eliminate the simultaneity bias.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABE90 Transportation in the Developing Countries.

01503729

14-1415

English

15p

2014

Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Elasticity (Economics); Environmental impacts; Highway safety; Least squares method; Panel studies; Transportation planning; Travel demand

Induced traffic

China

Environment; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2014 Paper #14-1415

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 27 2014 2:32PM