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Title:

Where Are the Electric Vehicles? A Spatial Model for Vehicle-Choice Count Data

Accession Number:

01516074

Record Type:

Component

Availability:

Transportation Research Board Business Office

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Abstract:

Electric vehicles (EVs) are predicted to increase in market share as auto manufacturers introduce more fuel efficient vehicles to meet stricter CAFE standards and driver concerns of increasing fuel costs. Reflecting spatial autocorrelation while controlling for a variety of demographic and locational (e.g., built environment) attributes, this zone-level spatial count model in this paper offers valuable information for power providers and charging station location decisions. By anticipating over 745,000 personal-vehicle registrations across a sample of 1000 census block groups in the Philadelphia region, a trivariate Poisson-lognormal conditional autoregressive (CAR) model anticipates Prius hybrid EV, other EV, and conventional vehicle ownership levels. Initial results signal higher EV ownership rates in more central zones with higher household incomes, along with significant residual spatial autocorrelation, suggesting that spatially-correlated latent variables and/or peer (neighbor) effects on purchase decisions are present. Such data sets will become more comprehensive and informative as EV market shares rise. This work’s multivarate Poisson-lognormal CAR modeling approach offers a rigorous, behaviorally-defensible framework for spatial patterns in choice behavior.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB10 Traveler Behavior and Values.

Monograph Accession #:

01503729

Report/Paper Numbers:

14-1282

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Chen, T Donna
Wang, Yiyi
Kockelman, Kara M

Pagination:

16p

Publication Date:

2014

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC
Date: 2014-1-12 to 2014-1-16
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Maps; References; Tables

Identifier Terms:

Toyota Prius

Geographic Terms:

Philadelphia Metropolitan Area

Subject Areas:

Planning and Forecasting; Vehicles and Equipment; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2014 Paper #14-1282

Files:

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Created Date:

Jan 27 2014 2:29PM