01516062

Component

This study aims to explain the factors affecting ridership changes on the relatively new Taiwan High Speed Rail system (THSR). The analysis is based on monthly ridership data from January 2007 to December 2012. The authors also discuss the impact of THSR on competing modes such as air demand. Econometric time-series models are then used to specify the demand adaptation controlling for socio demographic changes, specific events and economic developments. Firstly a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was applied; showing that the ridership thrives and slightly underestimates the trend prediction after 2012. Secondly, to specify the impact of explanatory variables, a first order moving average model was fitted. The results suggest that population, Chinese New Year summer vacation, and fuel price have a positive effect while unemployment and car ownership tend to reduce the THSR ridership. The authors further include as separate factor “month since operation” start and show that this factor is significant. Implications for general equilibrium modelling for new transport systems are discussed.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AR010 Intercity Passenger Rail.

01503729

14-1200

English

17p

2014

Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; Maps; References; Tables

Air travel; Competition; Economic development; High speed rail; Mode choice; Ridership; Time series analysis

Autoregressive integrated moving average models

Taiwan

Aviation; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Railroads; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2014 Paper #14-1200

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 27 2014 2:28PM