01514327

Component

In Iran, as a developing country, private car ownership has increased significantly over the last two decades. This rapid growth has imposed considerable strains on traffic networks and also has indirectly created critical conditions in traffic safety. In order to capture an appropriate understanding of the main socio-economic factors of this growth, this study aims to model zonal private car ownership and examine spatial variation in its determinants across 560 Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) in Tehran with the application of a local model, Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). Using land value as a proxy for average level of income in a TAZ, this paper reveals that there is a geographical distribution in relationship between per capita private car ownership and income, indicating that in low-income TAZs, instead of income, demographic structure and social needs of the TAZ’s inhabitants are the major determinants of private car ownership. Conventional technique of linear regression is also applied to model private car ownership and is compared to GWR. This comparison demonstrates that GWR surpasses linear regression.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADD20 Social and Economic Factors of Transportation.

01503729

14-0596

English

16p

2014

Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Automobile ownership; Regression analysis; Socioeconomic factors; Traffic analysis zones

Geographically weighted regression

Iran; Tehran (Iran)

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2014 Paper #14-0596

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Jan 27 2014 2:16PM