01478471

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2343-12

http://scholar.google.com...jari&publication_year=2013

An empirical assessment is made of the spatial transferability of person-level daily activity generation and time use models in regions in Florida and between Florida and California. The empirical models are for unemployed adults and are based on the multiple discrete-continuous extreme value structure. The prediction properties of the model are examined first. The results shed new light on the prediction properties of the multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model that have implications for transferability and that provide insight into how the model structure could be improved. Two approaches to transferring models are evaluated—naïve transfer and updating model constants—with measures such as log likelihood–based metrics, aggregate predictive ability, and model sensitivity to changes in demographic characteristics. Results suggest that accurate prediction of aggregate observed patterns is not an adequate yardstick with which to assess transferability; emphasis should be placed on model sensitivity to changes in explanatory variables. Updating of constants improves a transferred model’s aggregate prediction ability, but not necessarily its policy sensitivity. The extent of transferability between regions within a state is greater than that across states. Within Florida, there is greater transferability between urban regions (especially between Southeast Florida and Central Florida) than between urban and rural regions.

01492865

13-3944

English

pp 95–104

2013

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309263405

Print

References (17) ; Tables (10)

Activity choices; Empirical methods; Time management; Travel demand; Trip generation

California; Florida

Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General); I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Feb 5 2013 12:46PM

• Adjustment of Origin–Destination Matrices Based on Traffic Counts and Bootstrapping Confidence Intervals
• Automated Inference of Linked Transit Journeys in London Using Fare-Transaction and Vehicle Location Data
• Day-to-Day Origin–Destination Tuple Estimation and Prediction with Hierarchical Bayesian Networks Using Multiple Data Sources
• Estimating Nested Logit Models with Censored Data
• Estimating Service-Related Traffic Demand from Trip Chain Data
• Incorporating Intrahousehold Interactions into a Tour-Based Model of Public Transport Use in Car-Negotiating Households
• Increased Convergence Rates in Multiagent Transport Simulations with Pseudosimulation
• Mixed Multinomial Logit Model for Out-of-Home Leisure Activity Choice
• Modeling of Household Vehicle Type Choice Accommodating Spatial Dependence Effects
• On the Value of Business Travel Time Savings: Derivation of Hensher's Formula
• Reliable Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting for Urban Roads: Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Approach
• Toll Pricing: Computational Tests for Capturing Heterogeneity of User Preferences