01479213

Component

Motorcycling is one of the primary commuting modes in many Asian cities. Despite efforts to shift motorcyclists to buses, many commuters continue to choose motorcycles. This paper uses survey results from 13,248 randomly selected commuters of a within-day travel survey to investigate motorcycle and bus commute mode choices in Zhongshan, China. Using an exploratory Binary Probit (BP) model specification as a starting point, the authors simultaneously model motorcycle and bus choice using a Bivariate Probit model (BVP). Compared to the individual binary models, the BVP demonstrates higher explanatory power for bus choice with a minor decrease for motorcycle choice. There are three major findings. First, middle-income respondents (¥1200 to ¥2000 monthly) are more likely than lower-income respondents to choose motorcycles while higher-income respondents (above ¥5,000 monthly) are less likely to choose motorcycles. Bus choice probability steadily decreases with increasing income. This suggests that if bus services are not improved, middle-income motorcyclists may shift to less sustainable modes such as driving. Second, average commuting distance is higher for bus choosers (11.6 km) than for motorcycle choosers (6.0 km), implying motorcycles and buses might be complementary for different commuting distances. Third, car owners are less likely to commute by motorcycle than those not owning cars. Motorcycle owners are less likely to commute by bus than those not owning motorcycles. This suggests that it may be difficult to induce motorcycle owners and private car owners to take a bus unless public transit is made more desirable.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABE90 Transportation in the Developing Countries.

01470560

13-3659

English

17p

2013

Transportation Research Board 92nd Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; References; Tables

Case studies; Commuters; Commuting; Mode choice; Motorcycles; Transit buses

Zhongshan (China)

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2013 Paper #13-3659

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Feb 5 2013 12:43PM