01497806

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2366-09

http://scholar.google.com...hain&publication_year=2013

Life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) is an important tool for evaluating the merits of alternative investments. Inevitably, inputs for an LCCA are subject to a high level of uncertainty in both the short and long term. However, the way LCCA is currently implemented in the field treats LCCA inputs as static, deterministic values. Conducting an analysis in this way, though computationally simpler, hides the underlying uncertainty of the inputs by only considering a few possible permutations. The results of such an analysis could potentially lead a decision maker to the incorrect pavement selection. One methodology that has gained traction in the past decade is describing uncertain parameters probabilistically and allowing the analysis to consider a range of possible outcomes. Although this methodology is recommended by FHWA, practitioners still generally conduct deterministic LCCAs. One of the major reasons is that further work must be conducted to characterize uncertainty statistically for input parameters. This research attempted to build on previous work by probabilistically characterizing several input parameters for which empirical data were and were not readily available. This paper characterizes uncertainty and variability in the LCCA of pavements and then applies the methodology presented to two case studies to understand the implications of a probabilistic LCCA for the pavement selection process.

01497499

13-2858

English

pp 71-77

2013

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309286855

Print

Figures (4) ; References (25) ; Tables (4)

Life cycle costing; Pavement management systems; Pavement performance; Pavements; Probability; Uncertainty

Economics; Highways; Pavements; I10: Economics and Administration; I22: Design of Pavements, Railways and Guideways

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Feb 5 2013 12:35PM

• Bayesian Approach to Updating Markov-Based Models for Predicting Pavement Performance
• Enhancing Network-Level Decision Making Through the Use of a Structural Capacity Index
• Evaluating Pavement Condition of the National Highway System
• Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Mississippi’s Pavement Warranty Program
• Findings from the International Scan on Managing Pavements and Monitoring Performance
• Impact of Error in Pavement Condition Data on the Output of Network-Level Pavement Management Systems
• Improved Method for Evaluating the Pavement Structural Number with Falling Weight Deflectometer Deflections
• Innovative Sprinkle Treatment for Thin Durable Asphalt Overlays
• Integration of Rolling Wheel Deflectometer Deflection Measurements into Pavement Management Systems: Use of Multivariate Statistical Methods and Fuzzy Logic
• Management of Pavement Maintenance, Rehabilitation, and Reconstruction Through Network Partition
• Pavement Condition States Before and After Treatment
• Project Emission Estimator: Tool for Contractors and Agencies for Assessing Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Highway Construction Projects
• Toward Sustainable Pavement Management: Incorporating Environmental Impacts of Pavement Treatments into a Performance-Based Optimization