01475131

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2324-02

http://scholar.google.com....+Wu&publication_year=2012

Travel time information is generally nonlinear and nonstationary in a dynamic environment, and therefore no consistent tendency can be easily observed. This research developed a novel approach that combined the empirical decomposition method for speed data analysis and gray theory for travel time prediction to predict the arrival time at each stop along a bus route. In addition, sensitivity analysis was performed for different numbers of stops. With an average prediction error of less than 3.5%, the experiments showed that the proposed prediction approach, which employed both historical and real-time speed data collected from the geographic positioning system, outperformed Chou’s approach, which used only historical speed data. The proposed prediction method could be readily incorporated into a cell phone–based information retrieval system that indicated bus position en route as well as its arrival times at all stops.

01474810

12-0830

English

pp 11-19

2012

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309263184

Print

Figures; References; Tables

Arrivals and departures; Bus stops; Bus transit; Cellular telephones; Information retrieval; Mathematical prediction; Travel time

Empirical Mode Decomposition; Gray Theory

Taiwan

Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I71: Traffic Theory; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Mar 13 2013 9:41AM

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