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Title:

Traffic Safety Analysis for Developing Countries Using Delphi Technique and Bayesian Network

Accession Number:

01372504

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

Highway traffic accidents in developing countries and the number of casualties they claim are nothing short of disheartening. Due to poor record keeping habits, there is no easy method of obtaining the actual count of the accident data. In order to attempt to curb these accident rates, the primary accident factors have to be identified first. This paper, therefore, seeks to show that Delphi Technique is a suitable alternative method that can be exploited in generating highway traffic accident data for these developing countries. In order to authenticate the technique, Korea, a country that underwent similar problems when it was in its developing stages, is basically utilized for this reason, as well as the available excellent records in its database. Furthermore, the Delphi Technique, in combination with the Bayesian Network Model, is utilized to generate the major highway traffic accident causes as well as forecast accident rates in Korea. Based on its validation, it can be directly applied, in a similar manner, with regard to the various developing countries of the world.

Supplemental Notes:

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ABE90 Transportation in the Developing Countries

Monograph Accession #:

01362476

Report/Paper Numbers:

12-4707

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Mbakwe, Anthony C
Lee, Young-Jae
Choi, Keechoo
Saka, Anthony A

Pagination:

17p

Publication Date:

2012

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2012-1-22 to 2012-1-26
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; References; Tables

Geographic Terms:

Korean Peninsula

Subject Areas:

Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I81: Accident Statistics

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2012 Paper #12-4707

Files:

TRIS, TRB

Created Date:

Feb 8 2012 5:26PM