01373037

Component

https://doi.org/10.3141/2285-17

http://scholar.google.com...wang&publication_year=2012

The most comprehensive publicly available freight databases are the Commodity Flow Survey and FHWA’s Freight Analysis Framework. These two sources contain the dollar value and weight of freight movements at high geographic levels, such as states or metropolitan areas. Because of the difficulty of obtaining freight data at lower geographic levels, various practitioners and researchers have suggested estimating freight models on the basis of aggregate data. Following recent practice, a methodology is presented to estimate a nationwide production and attraction model for U.S. domestic trade of goods. To this end, a Commodity Flow Survey data set provided by the U.S. Census Bureau and composed of a 2-nonconsecutive-year period (2002 and 2007) of goods movement between U.S. states for 27 industry sectors was used. The state payroll by industry sector, obtained from the County Business Patterns of the U.S. census, was the variable used to estimate freight generation models. The main objective of this study was to analyze the temporal stability and predictability of the proposed aggregate models. The results indicate that payroll alone explains a significant portion of the freight production and attraction at the state level. However, such simplification in the model process did not result in reasonable predictions of freight for a future-year horizon. It is recommended that time-dependent factors (e.g., variables related to changes in industry productivity) affecting freight demand be considered in the modeling process.

01450277

12-4236

English

pp 145–154

2012

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board

9780309223256

Print

Figures; References; Tables

Forecasting; Freight traffic; Mathematical models; Methodology

Commodity Flow Survey; Freight Analysis Framework

Freight data; Freight generation models

Data and Information Technology; Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

TRIS, TRB, ATRI

Feb 8 2012 5:22PM

• Are Cell Phone Samples Needed for Studies of Walking Activity?
• Capturing and Representing Multimodal Trips in Travel Surveys: Review of the Practice
• Culvert Asset Management Practices and Deterioration Modeling
• Dashboard Tool to Communicate Delays and Economic Cost of Delays at International Border Crossings
• Design and Implementation of Internet-Based Traveler Intercept Survey
• Development of Statewide Freight Flow Assignment with Freight Analysis Framework: Learning from Case Study on International Trade Corridors in Texas
• Effect of Pavement Roughness on User Costs
• Empirical Analysis of Effect of Project-Based Learning on Student Learning in Transportation Engineering
• Estimating Asset Deterioration and Life Expectancy by Using Levels of Service
• Evaluating Project-Based Roadway Sustainability Rating System for Public Agency Use
• Evaluation of Key Design Elements of Long-Distance Survey of Front Range Travel Counts
• Internet Mobility Survey Sampling Biases in Measuring Frequency of Use of Transport Modes
• Measuring Future Vehicle Preferences: Stated Preference Survey Approach with Dynamic Attributes and Multiyear Time Frame
• New Methodology for Transportation Investment Decisions with Consideration of Project Interdependencies
• Probabilistic Models to Evaluate Effectiveness of Steel Bridge Weld Fatigue Retrofitting by Peening
• Radio Frequency Identification System to Measure Crossing and Wait Times of Commercial Vehicles at U.S. Border Crossings
• Study of Blog Mining for Examination of Tourist Travel Behavior in Japan
• Transferring Telephone-Based National Household Travel Survey to the Internet: Application to University Students