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Title:

Economic Impacts of a Statewide Low-Carbon Fuel Standard: A Multi-Scenario Analysis of a Proposed LCFS in Oregon

Accession Number:

01371331

Record Type:

Component

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of macroeconomic analyses of eight alternative responses to a California-style low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) rule in the state of Oregon. LCFS policies require that the fuel supply used become ten percent less carbon-intense over ten years. Such policies mandate no specific fuel requirement, either by type or by volume of fuel. Instead, they only mandate an average carbon intensity standard for the fuel supply. Such policies have been praised as economically beneficial because they could drive a shift from imported fuels to domestic fuels, but have been criticized because mandates may conflict with supply limitations, potentially driving up fuel prices and transportation costs. The state of Oregon recently commissioned a macroeconomic impact analysis to project the economy-wide impacts on overall productivity, employment, and incomes that would result from an LCFS in Oregon. The analysis considered a range of scenarios intended to bracket the range of possible industry responses to such a standard. Scenarios imagined reliance on in-state biofuels, out-of-state or foreign biofuels, or natural gas and electrification. The paper will discuss results showing that the scenarios relying on electric and natural gas fuels had the greatest positive impacts, that scenarios relying on in-state biofuels supply showed larger positive impacts than those relying on out-of-state supply, and that no scenario showed any negative macroeconomic impacts. This paper will discuss the scenarios, the macroeconomic impacts, the analysis methodology used, and the ways in which these results differed from other recent literature on the topic.

Monograph Accession #:

01362476

Report/Paper Numbers:

12-4187

Language:

English

Corporate Authors:

Transportation Research Board

500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001 United States

Authors:

Williamson, Scott
Lawrence, Michael
Pramod, Kavitha

Pagination:

18p

Publication Date:

2012

Conference:

Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting

Location: Washington DC, United States
Date: 2012-1-22 to 2012-1-26
Sponsors: Transportation Research Board

Media Type:

Digital/other

Features:

Figures; References

Geographic Terms:

Oregon

Subject Areas:

Economics; Energy; Highways; I10: Economics and Administration; I15: Environment

Source Data:

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2012 Paper #12-4187

Files:

TRIS, TRB

Created Date:

Feb 8 2012 5:22PM