01373295

Component

Although many individual route choice models have been proposed to incorporate travel time variability as a decision factor, they are typically still deterministic in the sense that the optimal strategy requires choosing one particular route that maximizes utility. In contrast, this study introduces an individual route choice model where choosing a portfolio of routes instead of a single route is the best strategy for a rational traveler who cares about both journey time and lateness when facing stochastic network conditions. The model is then tested with global positioning system (GPS) data collected in metropolitan Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota. The authors' data suggest strong correlation among link speed when analyzing morning commute trips. There is no single dominant route (defined here as a route with the shortest travel time for a 15 day period) in 18% of cases when links travel times are correlated. This paper demonstrates that choosing a portfolio of routes could be the rational choice of a traveler who wants to optimize route decisions under variability.

This paper was sponsored by TRB committee ADB10 Traveler Behavior and Values

01362476

12-3941

English

21p

2012

Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting

Digital/other

Figures; Maps; References

Global Positioning System; Link volume; Optimization; Route choice; Stochastic processes; Travel time

Minneapolis (Minnesota); Saint Paul (Minnesota)

Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning

Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting 2012 Paper #12-3941

TRIS, TRB

Feb 8 2012 5:20PM